Donald Trump used to spend most of his campaign rallies citing his awesome polls in what passed for stump speeches during the primaries. He was up, and his rivals were down. He was a winner, and all the governors and senators were losers.
But now the polls aren’t so gold-plated, and he thinks they’re mostly all wrong.
“Even though we’re doing pretty good in the polls, I don’t believe the polls anymore,” the GOP nominee said last week in Colorado Springs. “Believe me folks, we’re doing great. If we keep our spirit, and we go out and win, this is another Brexit, believe me.”
This is the last resort of losing campaigns: the grasping at straws that comes with the sinking feeling that all the time, money and hopes have been for naught. In their final throes, campaigns cling, sometimes bitterly, to an outlier poll, while they mutter darkly about the elites, or the media, or the polls themselves.
That is indeed the way things look for the Trump campaign right now. On the other hand, two dynamics are worth considering here which could make nonsense of the conclusion that Trump is on a hiding to nothing.
One is that the polls were all wrong about Brexit. The other is that Trump is a natural-born winner who has shocked the world through this entire election. So why would 8 November be any different?